Thai financial system loses steam: UTCC’s growth forecast trims to 3%

With an anticipated dip in exports and a delay in state finances preparation, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) revised its economic development forecast for the current year to 3%, a decline from the previously estimated 3.6% in December final year.
The revised progress forecast is reflective of new government measures aimed toward decreasing the value of residing, which embody reductions in electricity and gasoline costs along with debt suspension programmes. The Thai economy can be anticipated to benefit from an estimated one hundred billion baht increase from foreign tourist revenue.
The UTCC president, Thanavath Phonvichai, famous that the postponement in price range preparation for fiscal 2024 has immediately impacted authorities funding. This, paired with a reduction in exports and the ongoing drought, has imposed an economic burden of 200 billion baht.
Taking these opposed elements into consideration, Thanavath estimates an financial downside of 99 billion baht, which has minimize GDP growth by 0.6 share points.
“From now on, we now have to closely monitor the government’s measures to see whether or not they can restore financial confidence and investment.”

Despite the revised current-year projection, Thanavath maintains that the university’s GDP growth projection for 2024 remains at four.5-5%, with the tourism sector being a key driving pressure.
Insane confused that additional revisions to next year’s forecast would require more readability on the 10,000-baht digital pockets coverage, particularly regarding its funding supply, and whether or not it will be budget-based or a combination of budget and off-budget sources. This, he famous, may have significant implications on public debt and its influence on the Thai economy, reported the Bangkok Post.
A recent survey conducted by the university that gauged public perception of the value of living policies revealed meals and essential merchandise costs as the top concern, followed by public transportation prices and debt burdens. The country’s total financial system was additionally a significant fear.
However, the survey additionally discovered that current measures corresponding to a 2 baht per litre reduction in diesel costs and decrease electricity prices have been perceived as effective in assuaging the worth of living.
Survey respondents also expressed optimism that the visa waiver for Chinese and Kazakh tourists might give the financial system a lift, whereas the digital pockets handout could make a significant financial impression, although its results are expected to be felt in 2024, Thanavath added.
Echoing Thanavath’s sentiments, Sanan Angubolkul, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, acknowledged that the GDP projection for 2024 of about 5% is in line with the government’s goal. He suggested that if stimulus measures just like the digital wallet coverage are applied, it may doubtlessly increase GDP by 2-3 proportion factors.
Sanan further added that if export conditions improve next year and the worldwide economic system remains free of sophisticated factors, particularly geopolitical conflicts, attaining a growth price of 5% is a chance.
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